The Demographic Dividend

A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change

Author: David Bloom,David Canning,Jaypee Sevilla

Publisher: Rand Corporation

ISBN: 0833033735

Category: Social Science

Page: 126

View: 1554

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There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.

The Demographic Dividend

Evidence From the Indian States

Author: Mr. Ashoka Mody,Mr. Shekhar Aiyar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1455217808

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 31

View: 7721

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Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition ahead. It exploits the variation in the age structure of the population across Indian states to identify the demographic dividend. The main finding is that there is a large and significant growth impact of both the level and growth rate of the working age ratio. This result is robust to a variety of empirical strategies, including a correction for inter-state migration. The results imply that a substantial fraction of the growth acceleration that India has experienced since the 1980s - sometimes ascribed exclusively to economic reforms - is attributable to changes in the country’s age structure. Moreover, the demographic dividend could add about 2 percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth over the next two decades. With the future expansion of the working age ratio concentrated in some of India’s poorest states, income convergence may well speed up, a theme likely to recur on the global stage.

The demographic dividend

policy options for Asia

Author: Asian Development Research Forum (Bangkok, Thailand). General Meeting,Kư̄a Wongbunsin

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9789741334650

Category: Social Science

Page: 211

View: 9556

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Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend

Author: Mr. Paulo Drummond,Vimal Thakoor,Shu Yu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1498346960

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 22

View: 1952

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Africa will account for 80 percent of the projected 4 billion increase in the global population by 2100. The accompanying increase in its working age population creates a window of opportunity, which if properly harnessed, can translate into higher growth and yield a demographic dividend. We quantify the potential demographic dividend based on the experience of other regions. The dividend will vary across countries, depending on such factors as the initial working age population as well as the speed and magnitude of demographic transition. It will be critical to ensure that the right supportive policies, including those fostering human capital accumulation and job creation, are in place to translate this opportunity into concrete economic growth.

Demographic Dividends: Emerging Challenges and Policy Implications

Author: Roberta Pace,Roberto Ham-Chande

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319327097

Category: Social Science

Page: 184

View: 5594

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This book examines potential economic opportunities that countries can experience when fertility rates fall and the average life expectancy of the working age population increases. It presents detailed demographic and economic analysis of middle-income countries throughout the world in order to show how these countries can take advantage of this demographic bonus. The book first traces the common link between policies that contribute to fertility transition as well as create the right kind of environment for reaping the benefit of demographic dividend. Next, it explores different countries and regions who are at different levels of development. It assesses the long term impact of gender equality on economic growth and development in Latin America; describes the life-cycle saving patterns of Mexican households; and examines demographic determinants of economic growth in BRICS. The book also offers demographic and economic analysis of the Mediterranean area, Sub-Saharan Africa, and New Zealand. The comparison between the different territorial contexts allow for the identification of three typologies of demographic dividend: the first dividend, when the working population grows faster than total population, the second dividend, as active generations get older and invest their savings in the production system of their country, and the third dividend, based on the coexistence of two populations age structure strongly contrasting. Overall, this book argues for the need to capitalize on the opportunities that come from the demographic dividend by investing heavily in education programs, training programs for the population working age, health programs, the creation of health insurance systems as well as programs to reduce or increase fertility levels.

The Demographic Dividend

Effects of Population Change on School Education in Pakistan

Author: Naushin Mahmood

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Education, Primary

Page: 18

View: 8244

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Realising the Demographic Dividend

Policies to Achieve Inclusive Growth in India

Author: Santosh Mehrotra

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781107091726

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 480

View: 630

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This book discusses policies to achieve inclusive growth in India and realise the demographic dividend, which will end by 2040 when India will become an aging society. India is the world's fastest growing large economy, but jobs are not growing equally rapidly. The size of India's youth workforce is worrying, and the largely informal workforce is not covered by social insurance. Universal elementary education, despite the Right to Education Act 2009, is yet to be achieved. Health outcomes have improved only slowly over the years. Furthermore, sanitation still remains a very serious problem. As an economist and former policy-maker, the author discusses specific policies to address these problems, well beyond what is currently being practised. The book also deals with the governance issues that need to be addressed before inclusive growth can be attained.

Africa's Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend

Author: Hans Groth,John F. May

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 3319468898

Category: Social Science

Page: 526

View: 9462

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This book examines the promises as well as the challenges the demographic dividend brings to sub-Saharan Africa as fertility rates in the region fall and the labor force grows. It offers a detailed analysis of what conditions must be met in order for the region to take full economic advantage of ongoing population dynamics. As the book makes clear, the region will need to accelerate reforms to cope with its demographic transition, in particular the decline of fertility. The continent will need to foster human capital formation through renewed efforts in the areas of education, health and employment. This will entail a true vision and determination on the part of African leaders and their development partners. The book will help readers to gain solid knowledge of the demographic trends and provide insights into socioeconomic policies that eventually might lead sub-Saharan Africa into a successful future.

Africa's Demographic Transition

Dividend or Disaster?

Author: David Canning,Sangeeta Raja,Abdo S. Yazbeck

Publisher: World Bank Publications

ISBN: 1464804907

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 214

View: 4383

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Africa is poised on the edge of a potential takeoff to sustained economic growth. This takeoff can be abetted by a demographic dividend from the changes in population age structure. Declines in child mortality, followed by declines in fertility, produce a 'bulge' generation and a large number of working age people, giving a boost to the economy. In the short run lower fertility leads to lower youth dependency rates and greater female labor force participation outside the home. Smaller family sizes also mean more resources to invest in the health and education per child boosting worker productivity. In the long run increased life spans from health improvements mean that this large, high-earning cohort will also want to save for retirement, creating higher savings and investments, leading to further productivity gains. Two things are required for the demographic dividend to generate an African economic takeoff. The first is to speed up the fertility decline that is currently slow or stalled in many countries. The second is economic policies that take advantage of the opportunity offered by demography. While demographic change can produce more, and high quality, workers, this potential workforce needs to be productively employed if Africa is to reap the dividend. However, once underway, the relationship between demographic change and human development works in both directions, creating a virtuous cycle that can accelerate fertility decline, social development, and economic growth. Empirical evidence points to three key factors for speeding the fertility transition: child health, female education, and women's empowerment, particularly through access to family planning. Harnessing the dividend requires job creation for the large youth cohorts entering working age, and encouraging foreign investment until domestic savings and investment increase. The appropriate mix of policies in each country depends on their stage of the demographic transition.

Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend

Author: N.A

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: N.A

Category: Fertility, Human

Page: 41

View: 8296

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We estimate the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a cross-country panel data set using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. We find a large negative effect of the fertility rate on female labor force participation. The direct effect is concentrated among those aged 20-39, but we find that cohort participation is persistent over time giving an effect among older women. We present a simulation model of the effect of fertility reduction on income per capita, taking into account these changes in female labor force participation as well as population numbers and age structure.

Arab Dawn

Arab Youth and the Demographic Dividend They Will Bring

Author: Bessma Momani

Publisher: University of Toronto Press

ISBN: 1442624280

Category: Social Science

Page: 176

View: 7044

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In the West, news about the Middle East is dominated by an endless stream of reports and commentary about civil war, sectarian violence, religious extremism, and economic stagnation. But do they tell the full story? For instance, who knew that university enrolment in the war-torn Palestinian territories exceeds that of Hong Kong, or that more than a third of Lebanese entrepreneurs are women? Change is on its way in the Middle East, argues Bessma Momani, and its cause is demographic. Today, one in five Arabs is between the ages of fifteen and twenty-four. Young, optimistic, and increasingly cosmopolitan, their generation will shape the region’s future. Drawing on interviews, surveys, and other research conducted with young people in fifteen countries across the Arab world, Momani describes the passion for entrepreneurship, reform, and equality among Arab youth. With insightful political analysis based on the latest statistics and first-hand accounts, Arab Dawn is an invigorating study of the Arab world and the transformative power of youth.

China’s Economic Growth Prospects

From Demographic Dividend To Reform Dividend

Author: Cai Fang

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

ISBN: 1781005850

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 256

View: 7852

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China has grown rapidly since the reform initiation of the 1970s. China’s Economic Growth Prospects narrates the contribution of demographic transition to recent economic growth in China, and provides suggestions for ways in which it can sustain growth over the next few decades. The expert author provides reasons for the economic slowdown since the second decade of the twenty-first century; explores the challenges facing China’s long-term sustainability of growth with the disappearance of demographic dividend; and proposes policy suggestions. He concludes that, in order to avoid the middle-income trap, economic growth in China must transform from an inputs-driven pattern, to a productivity-driven pattern. Academics, researchers and students of economics and business, particularly those specialising in China, will find this book to be a useful resource. Investment bankers, journalists, politicians and policy makers will find the discussions of past experience and the future potential of the Chinese economy to be of interest.